Will Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Will Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
29
1kṀ11k
2029
5%
chance

Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.

Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.

Question is global -- charges in any country count.

Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.

Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.

Jan 16, 3:32pm: Will Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy, Center for Applied Rationality) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? → Will Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? (Previous version accidentally included CFAR incorrect, fixed thanks to Steven.)

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1y

Why the jump? Anyone want to DM?

predictedNO 2y
2y

What's his connection to CFAR? I can't find anything relevant on Google.

2y

@StevenK Aaah! That must've been some sort of typo, or accidentally pasting in the wrong thing. I've removed that reference in the question, so it should just say OpenPhil now. Thank you!

2y

@StevenK I would like to send you a M10 link, not sure how yet.

2y

@Jotto999 https://manifold.markets/links

2y

@jacksonpolack Hmm, do I just post it here and hope you get it first? :-o

https://manifold.markets/link/aJQVnG3h

2y

@Jotto999 Thanks! Past experience suggests public manalinks are risky, but it worked.

2y

@AndrewG any particular reason you think this is up to 50% probable? "bought Ṁ15 YES from 31% to 47%"

2y

also, LIMIT ORDERS, if you'd filed a big limit order at 20% you'd have cheaper shares

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