Will there be another G5 class geomagnetic storm from a solar flare during Solar Cycle 25?
Will there be another G5 class geomagnetic storm from a solar flare during Solar Cycle 25?
9
100Ṁ245
2030
26%
chance

On May 11, 2024, there was a G5 class geomagnetic storm affecting the Earth. The last event of this class was in October 2003.

The current solar cycle is expected to peak later this year or in early 2025, and end sometime around 2030. Solar flares are much more common during the peak of a cycle than near the end of one, but there are some recorded instances of strong flares late in a cycle.

Any event over the next few days counts as a continuation of the current event for the purposes of this question, unless the causal flare was generated entirely by a different sunspot.

A solar day (a rotation of the sun about its axis) lasts 25 Earth days. The sunspot that generated the May event will soon rotate to the part of the sun that is not facing Earth, but it can come back around in another couple weeks. As far as I am aware, sunspots usually do not continue producing flares at the same strength for this length of time, but if this did occur (in late May or early June), it would count as a separate event for the purposes of this question.

Resolves according to NOAA criteria.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
1mo

The graph on this page made me confused about whether the October 2024 storm was G5 or not, since the graph of solar storms by month shows a KP9 (G5) storm occured: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25


I did a little more digging and discovered that "9" and "9-" are separate classifications, and the October 10 storm was "9-", which maps to G4 and not G5. Putting this here so I don't have to rediscover this if it happens again a few years from now.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules