This version might just be worse than the previous one imo

@Balasar claude went the right way to escape the forest immediately after you posted this. please keep posting

@SaviorofPlant Claude will definitely not beeline through Mt. Moon, find the Silph Scope, and develop a mental model of the Safari Zone good enough to beat it. Also, it definitely won’t beat the champion.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vRIsu2pLI21W4KjfYbN13or8E-8cvJYw570wGMEp4UQU63ZhEh9FPGgj2ark8Yk7Vyrtt9MWq3jnn4h/pub

Changes with this version of the harness

@jcb

I like the new personality

Put a moderately sized YES order at 10% if anyone wants to call me at these odds

@Balasar I think Safari Zone is impossible without dev help

@SaviorofPlant I agree the odds are closer to 3% or 4% but it's a trifling sum and so much more fun to root for progress

@Balasar I assume Gemini's run where it received multiple dev hints doesn't count?

@SaviorofPlant Ah no, its the only model I was referring to with that, so it does count.

@Balasar I can N/A then, or edit it to add "in a run started after Claude 4 released"

@SaviorofPlant sure, just edit it, they basically started at the same time

I am retroactively changing this market to be about Claude's fourth run (after the bugfix reset) instead of the third run. This is against the letter of the description, but it would be mildly annoying to recreate the market and the new version would probably get less traders.

If you are unhappy with this decision, feel free to managram me the mana that you would have lost had everything resolved NO. (I'd offer refunds but I don't think anyone placed big bets expecting a reset before I closed the market, lmk if wrong)

Briefly closing in case dev restarts the run

@SaviorofPlant If the run is restarted early, will existing bets still resolve accordingly?

@UnspecifiedPerson The clear implication of the description is that everything resolves NO and I have to recreate the market. Given we're at such an early stage, I might just change the title of the market to "fourth run" and reopen this market, even though that's clearly not what the description says to do

@SaviorofPlant I would strongly prefer that you follow what's written in the description

@Robincvgr hopefully it's just a stream restart. If I recreate the market, the new version will probably get less traders

We can do an unofficial poll. Like this comment if you think I should just reopen this market with the title changed. Like Robin's comment if you think I should resolve everything NO and make a new market

@SaviorofPlant Ah fuck claude was just reset

@SaviorofPlant as someone who stands to benefit if everything resolves NO, i think it is just stupid to consider this a new run lol

@ointment like cmon it was reset like 100 steps in due to a bug, no one was betting based on the assumption that that would count. just reopen imo

@ointment Ehhh, I personally actually did bet 1M No on the Rock Tunnel option mostly based on the possibility that it would reset very early. (I stand to lose >150M overall if everything's resolved No, but I still generally prefer markets resolve as close to the plain interpretation of the description as possible.)

@traders Voice your opinions now, seems like we are evenly split here

@jim has spoken