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What will be true of Llama 4? [Add answers]
18
Ṁ1.6kṀ3.8k
resolved Jan 25
Resolved
YES
It will have a variant with over 400 billion parameters (does not need to release immediately)
Resolved
NO
It will be able to output audio
Resolved
NO
It will be able to output images
Resolved
NO
Some version of it will score better on GPQA than o1-preview (73% pass@1)
Resolved
NO
Some version of it will score better on SWE-Bench Verified than Claude 3.5 Sonnet (October version)
Resolved
NO
Manifold will think any variant is the best model released up to that point in a poll
Resolved
NO
Reaches Highest Arena Score on Chatbot Arena
Resolved
NO
Non-mini Llama 4 released by April 4, 2025
Resolved
NO
Gets the high score on Humanity's Last Exam
Resolved
NO
Gets the high score on FrontierMath
Resolved
NO
Meta share price reaches ATH within 24 hours of the first release of a non-mini Llama 4
Resolved
NO
It will have a variant with over 1 trillion parameters (does not need to release immediately)

if an answer doesn't specify which model, any model in the llama 4 family meeting the criteria causes it to resolve YES

high score options are up to date of release - if llama4 gets a high score on april 1 and gpt-9000 comes out on april 2 and beats its score, answer still resolves YES

  • Update 2025-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Update:

    • Llama 4 Behemoth has not yet been released.

    • Answers that rely solely on Llama 4 Behemoth will remain unresolved until its release, unless smaller models in the Llama 4 family satisfy the criteria.

  • Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market is being reopened because Llama 4 Behemoth is not expected to be released soon. This action is consistent with the previous update that answers relying solely on Llama 4 Behemoth will remain unresolved until its release.

  • Update 2026-01-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is planning to resolve answers based on Llama 4 Maverick instead of waiting for Llama 4 Behemoth, which is believed to never be released. This represents a significant change from the previous updates that indicated answers relying solely on Behemoth would remain unresolved until its release.

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Pretty sure Behemoth is never being released, anyone object to me resolving this based on Maverick?

@SaviorofPlant If you're going with that condition, you'll also need to change the resolution of the 1T param answer. Otherwise I have no objections; I also think Behemoth isn't getting released (because let's face it, even if it exists in some fashion, there's no way they're going to get it in a competitive state if they haven't yet).

@mods "It will have a variant with over 1 trillion parameters" needs to be re-resolved to NO (it does not need to release immediately, but it does need to release in the first place, which is pretty clearly not happening at this point...)

reopening as behemoth does not seem like it is going to be released anytime soon

@mods trying to resolve NO

Error resolving answer: RangeError: Variable $2 out of range. Parameters array length: 1 at /usr/src/app/node_modules/pg-promise/lib/formatting.js:188:19 at String.replace (<anonymous>) at Object.array (/usr/src/app/node_modules/pg-promise/lib/formatting.js:172:22) at Object.formatQuery (/usr/src/app/node_modules/pg-promise/lib/formatting.js:296:29) at Task.$query (/usr/src/app/node_modules/pg-promise/lib/query.js:129:40) at Task.<anonymous> (/usr/src/app/node_modules/pg-promise/lib/query.js:275:23) at Task.query (/usr/src/app/node_modules/pg-promise/lib/task.js:117:34) at Task.obj.multi (/usr/src/app/node_modules/pg-promise/lib/database.js:922:30) at getContractAndMetricsAndLiquidities (/usr/src/app/backend/shared/src/utils.ts:173:28) at Task.<anonymous> (/usr/src/app/backend/shared/src/resolve-market-helpers.ts:87:50)

@SaviorofPlant weird, same for me. @ian ? (or more reliable to post on discord bugs)

@SaviorofPlant fixed, sorry!

Is this market meant to be closed?

It's out: https://ai.meta.com/blog/llama-4-multimodal-intelligence/

Llama 4 Behemoth has not yet released, most answers will not resolve until it does (unless some of the smaller models satisfy the criteria).

reposted

this looks like it might be the next big LLM release (or maybe deepseek r2), for those of you looking for dopamine after this insane month

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