This market resolves YES if Governor Greg Abbott refuses to certify or sign the Certificate of Election for a U.S. Senate winner in the 2026 general election (November 3, 2026), provided that either James Talarico or Jasmine Crockett wins the Democratic primary and subsequently wins the general election. The market resolves NO if Abbott certifies and signs the Certificate of Election for the winner within the statutory timeframe (by approximately day 33 post-election per Texas Election Code § 67.010).

For resolution purposes, "refusal to certify" includes: (1) explicitly refusing to sign the official canvass declaration or Certificate of Election; (2) indefinitely delaying the signing beyond the statutory deadline without legal justification;(3) withholding the Certificate despite a court order to sign it; or (4) certifying and signing a Certificate of Election declaring that the losing candidate won the election. The market resolves N/A if neither Talarico nor Crockett wins the Democratic primary, or if neither Democratic nominee wins the general election.

The Democrat will be counted as having won if they lead the vote after the initial count by a sufficiently large margin that wouldn't be changed in a fair recount, even if there are accusations of irregularities by the state government. If the margin is less than 0.5% and a fair recount changes the outcome from D to R, the market will N/A.

Background

Talarico currently leads Crockett in the Democratic primary by 9 percentage points, with the primary scheduled for March 3, 2026. If no candidate reaches 50%, the contest will be decided by a May runoff. The general election is November 3, 2026.

In Texas, the governor serves as the canvassing authority for U.S. Senate elections and must officially declare the winner and sign the Certificate of Election. While this is a statutory duty, the governor technically has discretion over the timing and execution of signing the certificate. Texas law does not give any type of deadlines for the governor to call an election, and Abbott has previously delayed election-related actions for extended periods. However, refusal to certify a valid election result would likely trigger legal challenges and potential intervention by the U.S. Senate.

Considerations

Abbott has demonstrated willingness to use executive discretion aggressively in election-related matters. He set a special election date months later than legally required, citing Harris County's election administration, stating "No county in Texas does a worse job of conducting elections than Harris County". Additionally, Abbott raised a threat against Harris County, saying state officials should take control of its elections.

If Abbott were to refuse certification, the matter would likely escalate to the Texas Supreme Court (where Abbott has appointed six of nine justices) or the U.S. Senate. The U.S. Senate has constitutional authority to seat a member even without a state-issued Certificate of Election, though this would create an unprecedented constitutional crisis at the start of the 120th Congress.

In Texas, the certification of a U.S. Senate election is a multi-step statutory process involving county officials, the Secretary of State, and ultimately the Governor.

Because the state government is currently a "Republican trifecta" (holding the Governorship, both legislative chambers, and the Attorney General's office), there are several specific mechanisms officials could theoretically use to obstruct or delay a result they dislike, particularly in a close race involving a controversial figure like Ken Paxton.

The Certification Process & Obstruction Points

1. County-Level Canvass (Days 3–14 Post-Election)

The Process:
After Election Day, each of Texas's 254 counties must "canvass" (officially count and validate) their returns. This is done by the County Commissioners Court (specifically the County Judge and Commissioners). They take the precinct returns and aggregate them into an official county total.

Potential Obstruction:

• Refusal to Canvass: A partisan County Commissioners Court could theoretically refuse to certify their county's results, citing "irregularities" or fraud. This happened in a few counties in other states in 2022.

  • Remedy: This is a "ministerial duty" (mandatory, not optional). If they refuse, a court can issue a writ of mandamus forcing them to do it.

• State Takeover (SB 1933): Under a law passed in 2023 (Senate Bill 1933), the Secretary of State has the power to take administrative oversight of a county's elections if a complaint is filed and they find "good cause" to believe there is a recurring pattern of problems (e.g., delays in reporting).

  • Scenario: If a large Democratic county (like Harris or Dallas) is slow to report or has minor issues, the Secretary of State could theoretically intervene, suspend the county election administrator, and place the office under state supervision, creating chaos or delays in finalizing that county's numbers.

2. State-Level Tabulation (Days 15–30 Post-Election)

The Process:
County clerks send their certified totals to the Secretary of State (SOS). The SOS tabulates these returns to determine the statewide winner.

Potential Obstruction:

• The "Investigation" Delay: The SOS or Attorney General could announce an investigation into "irregularities" in specific counties. While this doesn't legally stop the count, they could use it as political cover to delay the final tabulation.

• Recounts: In Texas, a recount is not automatic unless the margin is a tie. However, a candidate can request a recount if the difference is less than 10% of the winner's vote total.

  • Effect: A recount petition stops the certification. The Governor cannot issue a Certificate of Election until the recount is completed. If Paxton were to lose by a slim margin (e.g., <1%), he could file for a recount, freezing the process for weeks.

3. The Governor’s Canvass (Days 15–33 Post-Election)

The Process:
For U.S. Senate elections, the Governor acts as the canvassing authority (Texas Election Code § 67.010). The Governor examines the returns prepared by the SOS and officially declares the winner. This must happen roughly between the 15th and 33rd day after the election.

Potential Obstruction:

• Refusal to Sign: The Governor has a statutory duty to canvass the returns. However, if he simply refuses to sign the official declaration, it creates a constitutional crisis.

  • Remedy: As with county officials, the remedy is a lawsuit seeking a writ of mandamus from the Texas Supreme Court to force him to sign.

• Delaying the Certificate: Even if he canvasses the result, the Governor must sign a Certificate of Election for the winner to present to the U.S. Senate. He could drag his feet on physically signing or delivering this document.

4. The "Ken Paxton Factor" (Attorney General's Role)

Since Ken Paxton is the Attorney General, he holds a unique position of power even as a candidate.

• Election Contests: If Paxton loses, he could file an "election contest" (a lawsuit challenging the validity of the result).

• Legal Conflict: Typically, the Attorney General defends the state's election results in court. If Paxton is the one suing the state to overturn his own loss, he would have a massive conflict of interest. He acts as the state's top lawyer while simultaneously attacking the state's election.

  • Mechanism: He might attempt to use his office's resources to investigate "fraud" to support his own lawsuit, or refuse to defend the state against his own allies' lawsuits.

The Ultimate Check: The U.S. Senate

If Texas officials successfully obstruct the process—for example, if the Governor refuses to sign the Certificate of Election despite a clear Talarico victory—the deadlock moves to Washington, D.C.

Article I, Section 5 of the U.S. Constitution states that the Senate is the "Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members."

• Seating without a Certificate: The U.S. Senate has the power to seat a winner even without a Certificate of Election from the Governor. If the Senate Rules Committee determines that Talarico won more votes and the state is acting in bad faith, they can vote to seat him anyway.

• The "Annoyance": Texas Republicans could pressure Republican U.S. Senators to object to seating Talarico, turning the procedural vote into a partisan battle on the Senate floor.