Resolution criteria
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026. The winner will be determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the general election. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026. The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the general election. Results can be verified at Texas Secretary of State Elections Division or major news outlets covering the election results.
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According to Politico, Paxton agreed to drop out if the SAVE America Act passes (which would involve changing filibuster rules—a longtime political football). Somewhat counterintuitively, this had the effect of delaying Trump’s endorsement of Cornyn and raising Paxton’s overall chance of winning.
I think this market should be higher
https://manifold.markets/bens/if-james-talarico-wins-the-texas-se?r=YmVucw
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