This market resolves YES if the unweighted average of the "Pro-Woke" responses to the following 5 recurring polling questions in 2026 is at least 2.0 percentage points higher than the 2025 Composite Baseline (52.6%).
If the 2026 average is < 54.6%, the market resolves NO.
The "Woke Vibe" Index Criteria
The index is composed of 5 specific metrics from Gallup and PRRI. Each metric measures a different facet of "woke" culture (Gender, Race, Corporate/Economic Values).
1. The Trans Acceptance Rebound
Poll: Gallup Values and Beliefs (May/June release)
Question: "Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal... please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable... Changing oneโs gender."
2025 Baseline: 40% (Source: Gallup, June 12, 2025)
Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke".
2. The "Systemic Racism" Acknowledgement
Poll: PRRI American Values Survey or major topical report (Sept/Oct or April release)
Question: Agreement that "Generations of slavery and discrimination against Black people and Native Americans have given white people unfair economic advantages."
2025 Baseline: 51% (Source: PRRI "Democracy at a Crossroads", April 2, 2025)
Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke".
3. The "Toxic Masculinity" Rejection
Poll: PRRI American Values Survey (Sept/Oct release)
Question: Disagreement with the statement: "Society as a whole has become too soft and feminine."
2025 Baseline: 54% (Source: PRRI AVS, Oct 31, 2025)
Woke Direction: Higher (Disagreement) is "Woke".
4. The "Rainbow Norms" Check
Poll: Gallup Values and Beliefs (May release)
Question: Moral acceptability of "Gay or lesbian relations."
2025 Baseline: 64% (Source: Gallup, May 29, 2025)
Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke".
5. The "Climate Priority" Metric
Poll: Gallup Environment (March/April release)
Question: "Protection of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economic growth."
2025 Baseline: 54% (Source: Gallup, March 2025)
Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke".
If a poll question is not asked by the end of 2026 for whatever reason, the poll will be excluded from this market's resolution. If 3/5 of the questions used to resolve the market are unavailable in this fashion, the entire market will N/A.
Once the PRRI poll is available, this market will resolve. This poll came out in the second half of October for the last two years; I have set the close date accordingly.
Update 2026-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Based on updated poll results (3 of 5 questions now available), the remaining two PRRI American Values Survey questions must average 57.5% to trigger a YES resolution (a 5% increase from the 2025 baseline of 52.5%).
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@realTomBayes These two results cancel out the Climate Priority result from last month (it increased by 4% and each of these decreased by 2%), so the remaining two questions need to average a 2.0% increase for the more woke option for the market to resolves YES.
These last two questions (both from the American Values survey) need to average 54.5% to resolve YES. They averaged 52.5% in 2025.
@SaviorofPlant Actually, wait, I can't do math. The overall average needs to move up by 2% and we have a null result from 3/5 of the questions. This means these last two questions need to average 57.5% to trigger a YES resolution, a 5% increase from 2025.
what on earth does "morally wrong" mean in the conext of divorce? morally wrong to whom? the people at the wedding?" ๐คฃ
@0xseraphim RW people (mainly, but not exclusively, men) want to end divorce. They do not want wives to be able to leave a marriage, they find that morally wrong.
The first of the polls referenced in the description for this market has been released: #5, the Gallup "Climate Priority" metric.
The percentage of respondents saying that the environment should be given priority has increased to 58% in 2026 from 54% in 2025.
The remaining four questions referenced in the description now need to average 53.75% to cause the market to resolve YES (they averaged 52.25% in 2025).
@SaviorofPlant Idk why the black woman is grabbing the rainbow haired white woman's sign. Seems not woke enough to me
@SaviorofPlant But why does the sign say "progress"? Wokeness has been one of the main obstacles of it.
@MaxA depends on what we're progressing towards! More preventable child deaths from easily curable diseases?
@TiredCliche so you would be in favor of accepting medical school students, the professors who will teach them, and then assigning residencies to the graduates based on their abilities only, right?
@MaxA I have no strong opinions about such things. The anti-woke clawed back our funding for Vitamin A supplements for children who don't get enough Vitamin A.
You don't need a medical degree to give a child a Vitamin A supplement. When I said "easily curable", I meant "easily curable".
@MaxA Thinking further, I guess not- I'd also want to consider their philosophies. I don't want to accept medical students who are in favor of more children dying of easily curable diseases.
@TiredCliche that is a very specific gripe that you have. It also has nothing to do with anti-wokeness.
@MaxA The current administration, specifically DOGE, obviously feels differently. They made these cuts because they were too woke and DEI.