Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?
22
10kṀ52712026
58%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
My current view is that synthetic data and/or RL is probably sufficient to get us to AGI, but I can respect people who think otherwise. If the gains of synthetic data and/or RL become so overwhelming at any point this year that I start to think data-naysayers are dumb, I will resolve this YES. Otherwise, I will wait until 2026 to resolve this NO. I won't trade on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?
9% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
21% chance
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?
91% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026?
7% chance
Will artificial general intelligence be achieved they the end of 2025 ?
19% chance