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MANIFOLD
Which prediction markets will MNX list before November?
26
Ṁ11kṀ11k
Oct 31
85%
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
77%
Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?
67%
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2028?
66%
Labor: US labor force participation in December 2027?
53%
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
33%
Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
18%
something about METR time horizon

MNX is planning to add a series of prediction markets, mostly but not exclusively touching on the AI economy. Help us decide which prediction markets to list! AI benchmarks, product releases, financials, even politics/geopolitics are fair game (sports is totally out though). We are looking for markets that are interesting, objective/unambiguous, helpful from a AI capabilities forecasting perspective, and likely to generate significant trading volume.

Submit your market idea (it can be a link to another manifold market), and if we end up listing it on MNX before the end of October 2026, the answer resolves YES. If there's a duplicate or vague market, I will resolve it N/A.

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bought Ṁ250 NO

METR time horizon is dead in like 10 different ways unfortunately

@calour market: will they stop updating it / announce it's dead

@Gen thats one way its dead