MANIFOLD
Which Manifold loan system do you like more?
134
resolved Jan 18
Old system (daily free loans)
See results
New system (margin loans + 5% interest)

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A lot of my money is locked up in very long term markets, so the cap screws me. I can't take loans for over a year.

@HillaryClinton Was there a total cap before this update? I only reached it now.

@Irigi there was technically a cap before all these changes in the past week, but it was very hard to reach

@Irigi Eliza has said that in the old system there was a cap of 8X leverage.

Suggestion: If a market still hasn't been resolved X months after closing, make it loan free.

I'm now planning to add back the daily free loan, while keeping margin loans + interest payments. Long term markets will be better than ever!

@SG Please show the balances for each type separately so we can see what amount will have interest charged.

@SG is there anywhere on the site I can read a tooltip about interest payments? Eg which markets does it apply to, does it apply to AMM, when do you receive the interest and how. I’ve been out of the loop there

(I don’t think interest payments are a good idea but if daily loans are staying and manifold wants to try printing some mana this way it’s fair enough)

I think an option of having both system brings so much more flexibility for almost every user, and if the goal is to truly increase the efficiency of long term markets then having both systems makes the most sense imo.

Under the current system, I'm noticing the feeling that, if I don't trust the creator to be around, I am reluctant to trade in the market because I'll only ever get my mana back if they resolve the market, mod ping notwithstanding.

I just want to point out that people outside of financial and gamblinng culture might not even know how margin loan and interest work, and the publication did not explain enough.

@Henry38hw good point

stephen why is there a see results option. you can push code can't you. make a see results button

@Shelvacu a "see results" option on polls is good; makes it obvious that you can't vote after seeing the results

@AhronMaline yeah I was thinking about this and had the same thought. But it's still a workaround, and it makes the results more confusing by including a non-result in the results.

@Shelvacu edit: idk I’m confused, I know what you mean now. Maybe I will improve this in the future so that see results doesn’t count toward answers 😄

It seems like manifolders do not value having access to leverage on demand nearly as much as having free loans (even if the loans are much smaller).

Both approaches have their pros/cons. The former enables a whole new style of trading, but is incompatible with being zero-fee even in a play money system (monetary inflation would be way too massive). It's possible to stack both systems, and have a fee-less daily loan option like before with a fee-full margin loans on top, but that does complicate things.

Based on this feedback (and feedback from other sources), I'm considering returning to the previous model, while leaving many of the new features I've built in the last week in place (being able to see outstanding loans, clear maximum leverage limits, ability to pay back loans early, etc).

One potential way to improve the old model would be to allow limit orders to be financed via margin loans. If there are no fees, this can just happen automatically, and would free users to spend down their balances. We could also then add a requirement for users to have < 1000 mana to claim a loan. This would ultimately do more to improve trading velocity and participation on long-term markets I think than the current model.

Thoughts, comments, suggestions welcome! This is the time to make yourself heard before we go work on other aspects of the platform.

@SG I think the new loan system is good. The initial interest rate was too high but I think the balance is better now. I value having leverage on demand, and think the fees are about right.

@SG agree with jack (as a newer user with a lower bal), honestly I think the ability to pay back loans basically solved all the issues I had and the new changes are a cherry on top. Your option also works.

@SG I think the one thing you could consider is having decaying interest based on net worth instead of a flat 5%. I think most of the concern with the interest has to do with whales parking money in useless markets, so a decay down to 1% at .25% increments (i.e. 5% at <5000, 4.75% < 10000, etc.). Happy to hear more rigorous analysis on this

@prismatic good to know! whenever we release any new feature usually the detractors drown out the positive voices, so it's good to hear your perspective

@prismatic progressive interest rates! interesting idea

@SG I already like a lot about the new system, and positively love the idea of progressive interest rates

@SG I think a requirement to have <1000 Mana to request a (old system, free) loan would break things for many users. The same requirement for an additional, loan-with-interest-on-demand would be ok, maybe actually great.

@Primer how so? beside limit orders what are the issues?

@SG If I invest M3000 in a resolves in 2030 market, I need to collect loans daily for a year in order to get (guessing the numbers here) M2000 loaned back by 2027. This is fine. But if I can't collect loans while >M1000, I won't get (enough/any) Mana back and long term markets are off the table.

Deliberately trying to stay <M1000 is work and complicated, plus there's never free liquidity for opportunities, all taking out the fun.

Potential remedy: Give us all the unclaimed-in-the-past, accumulated free daily loans in a big payout whenever we click on "collect loans". Downside: No need to come back each day.

@SG I do value leverage on demand! You just need to find a new incentive for long-term markets. Maybe an interest rate that grows with time?

@SG My issue with the new system is that I can't understand what is the incentive for betting in long-term markets now. With the old system you got back mana over time, and I think that helped a lot when choosing to bet in a long-term market. I understand there is a 5% interest on positions but that is true both for long and short-term markets.

@SG one consideration is that leverage on demand was available in the old system through P2P loans. There are advantages and disadvantages to bringing it "in house"

Personally I care much more about free loans than on demand loans, and I'd rather not have a balance limit. I try to keep my balance healthy so that I can take opportunities if I see them. I guess other people would use on demand loans for this, but I'd be stressed about making enough for it to be worth the interest.

@SG I like the ability to see my outstanding loans and pay them back early, as well as leverage on demand.

I thought it was silly I could be at 50% liquidity without a way to pay back existing loans.

I prefer to keep higher liquidity so I can make big bets when the need arises, and having loans on demand helps with that, as well as understanding the amount I owe.

I just think the Interest rate is a bit steep. Maybe a 'mana chair' could be appointed to set the interest rate.

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