Over the past decade, the percentage of novel drug approvals for rare diseases (diseases that affect fewer than 200,000 people in the US) has increased (FDA - Rare Disease Day 2023, Pharmaceutical Technology). In 2022, the FDA approved 20 novel drugs for rare diseases (FDA - New Drug Therapy Approvals 2022).
The question will close on December 31, 2024. Resolution will happen some time later, matching that of this same question on Good Judgment Open. If something prevents GJO from resolving their question, I will make a good-faith effort to resolve it myself.
As is my standing policy, I do not bet on the markets I create.
Update 2025-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Good Judgment Open (GJO) resolution is currently pending.
If GJO does not resolve by February 1, the creator will resolve the market independently.
Update 2025-10-01 (PST): - Good Judgment Open (GJO) has resolved the market to "Between 20 and 27 novel drugs." (AI summary of creator comment)
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@traders The GJO question is now closed and waiting to resolve. I'll check it periodically. If it doesn't resolve by February 1, I'll go ahead and try to figure it out on my own.