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MANIFOLD
Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?
16
Ṁ1kṀ8.7k
2027
0.5%
4
0.5%
5
0.6%
6
85%
7
10%
8
4%
Other

The minimum is 4 as i am counting flights 4, 5, 6 and 10 as successfully splashed down.

  • Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This is not a multiple resolution market - only one option can resolve YES.

The market was temporarily resolved as 4 and then unresolved.

  • Update 2026-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Flight 11 counts as a successful splashdown. Flight 12 appears successful but is pending confirmation from new video releases. If Flight 12 is confirmed, the total successful splashdowns would be 6.

Market context
SpaceX
Space
Rockets
Starship Launch Party
Commercial spaceflight
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I'm assuming Flight 13 counts so we're at 7 now

@Mqrius

Yes with flights 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12, and 13 we come to a current total of 7.

This ended up being a bit more prolonged than i originally suspected lol but it’s looking like we are close.

Extend please @RyanTyznar

Wanted to update that Flight 11 counts as successful and Flight 12 appears to be so but its not clear so I’ll wait for new video releases.

Including flight 12 that would bring the total now up to 6.

Sorry about that folks. I had a temporary brain fart i thought this was a multiple resolution market it is not only one option can resolve yes.

Market was resolved as 4 and quickly unresolved.

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