
By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?
66
10kṀ57k2030
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
82%
01/01/2026
92%
01/01/2028
95%
01/01/2030
Resolved
NO01/01/2025
See https://arcprize.org/arc-agi-pub.
This allows for arbitrary API usage unlike the ARC-AGI prize.
I will resolve based on when the date when the method is first reported even if it is not submitted until substantially later (due to e.g. no public API).
I will apply a restriction roughly in line with the $10,000 runtime cost contraint, though it is unclear how this should resolve with respect to private models with no known API price.
I will exclude solutions that seem heavily overfit based on the semi-private evaluation set.
(Cut off data is resolved based on midnight PT.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
31% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
11/18/27
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028
25% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?
2/25/27
ARC-AGI-2 Top Score in 2025
41.5
Will a major lab officially declare AGI before the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?
9% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
2/2/29
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
13% chance
ARC-AGI-2 Top Score >=50% in 2025?
16% chance
Sort by:
@RyanGreenblatt I think this resolves NO? o3 did pass 85%, but it was well above the cost constraints.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
31% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
11/18/27
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028
25% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?
2/25/27
ARC-AGI-2 Top Score in 2025
41.5
Will a major lab officially declare AGI before the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?
9% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
2/2/29
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
13% chance
ARC-AGI-2 Top Score >=50% in 2025?
16% chance