MANIFOLD
Will there be a startup with zero human employees in 2026?
20
Ṁ100Ṁ800
Dec 31
32%
chance
9

E.g. a startup with an OpenClaw CEO

Definition of "zero human employee startup" for the purposes of this market:

  1. Receives angel/VC investment of at least $10K USD or equivalent in another (crypto)currency, or bootstraps itself to $10K+ USD by doing immediately-profitable work

  2. Engages in economically-useful work, validated by either:

    1. Appreciation from humans (who are not sockpuppets)

    2. Profiting from selling products and/or services to other AIs

    3. Profiting from trading

  3. Has an AI "CEO", and zero or more subagents

  4. Does not simply delegate all tasks to humans, either during bootstrapping or growth phases (although it may delegate some tasks to independent human contractors)

  • Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will rely on news coverage by journalists to determine if a qualifying startup exists when evaluating resolution at market close.

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ok, so say the close date has come... how do you figure out whether this exists or not?

@marvingardens seems very newsworthy, I would expect journalists to cover this if it happens

@RobinGreen couldn't disagree more. making a news push to present such an narrative is pretty much completely distinct from whether it's happening or not. If it's happening, that doesn't mean it'll be covered; and if it's being covered, that doesn't mean it's happening. Two almost totally unrelated things

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