When will there be credible evidence of an organism with a Gene Drive being released in the wild?
When will there be credible evidence of an organism with a Gene Drive being released in the wild?
41
2.2kṀ15762040
15%
2024-2026
35%
2027-2029
20%
2030-2032
15%
2033-2035
8%
2036-2038
7%
This market resolves to the bucket containing the year in which there is credible evidence of an organism with a gene drive being released into a wild population, with the intent to have it spread across the majority of that organisms natural range.
I do not require it to be released by a government or NGO, a rogue scientist eradicating Malaria/WNV carrying mosquitoes with one would totally count.
I may update the resolution criteria to better fit what I understand the spirit of the market to be. I will not bet in this market.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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