Selling my YES position. Bought at 12-13% earlier this month, price has moved to 50% which matches my current estimate. Edge exhausted - nice profit, moving on. March is shaping up to be a big month for model releases (GPT-5.4, GPT-5.4 Pro, Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite all already shipped), but whether it hits 10+ depends on how you count and what drops in the remaining 3 weeks.

Buying YES. This resolves based on the multi-choice market where 4 answers have already resolved YES (GPT-5.3, GPT-5.4, GPT-5.4 Pro, Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview). Need 6 more from ~18 remaining answers. The top 6 unresolved answers average ~60% probability each (DeepSeek V4-Lite 86%, GLM-5-Code 68%, Gemma 4 65%, DeepSeek V4 Full 50%, Haiku 4.6 49%, Kimi K3 40%). Expected additional YES from all remaining answers: ~5.3. Using normal approximation, P(6+ more) is around 35-44%. Market at 12% significantly underprices this.