Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?

46

Ṁ1kṀ9.6k

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will resolve to YES IFF China institutes some type of naval blockade against Taiwan between the start of this market and before the end of 2025.

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predictedNO

Can you define 'some type of naval blockade'?

predictedNO

@RealityQuotient

@mods this question is currently extremely vulnerable to heavy contestation in the event of plausible YES resolutions

@JoshuaWilkes The moderation guidelines don't really give us any tools here. I can say that moderators asked to resolve this would probably use their best judgement given the state of the market. If you're concerned, don't bet in this market -- in fact, you seem to be very interested and I know you are good at running markets, you should make your own version if you feel comfortable doing so.

@Eliza Yeah, just bet in this one https://manifold.markets/SG/china-blockades-taiwan-in-2025 or make your own tbh

China blockades Taiwan in 2025? (media reports)

17% chance. [these resolution criteria are a work in progress for the next several days and may change. caveat mercator] This market resolves to YES if during 2025: People's Republic of China or affiliated military or maritime forces physically prevent vessel access to any of Taiwan's main ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, Taipei, or Hualien) And one of the following sources confirms a "blockade": AP, Reuters, Financial Times, NYT, Taiwan Defense Ministry, US Defense Department, Japan Defense Ministry, or NATO Edge Cases: "Military exercises" that meet the above criteria DO count, even if labeled as exercises Blockades starting in 2025 and extending to 2026 COUNT Failed blockades COUNT if China made a clear attempt meeting the criteria, even if Taiwan/allies successfully defended against it Blockade of outlying islands only (Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu) does NOT count Cyber attacks or economic sanctions alone DO NOT count without physical maritime enforcement

https://mobile.twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1643824218918772737

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