What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1.8kṀ1.1k

Jul 21

82%

Someone gets 42

78%

China 6 golds

63%

USA second place

59%

Bronze cutoff is at least 16

57%

At least 1/12 of all contestants receive at least gold

52%

At least 1/4 of all contestants receive at least silver

52%

Silver cutoff is at least 24

50%

A country scores 126 on a day

48%

Problem 2 or 5 is geometry

45%

At least 1/2 of all contestants receive at least bronze

45%

Gold cutoff is at least 30

45%

Problem 2 or 5 is number theory

45%

Problem 2 or 5 is combinatorics

43%

Problem 1 or 4 has a strictly less than 60% solve rate (a solve is defined as at least 5 points)

43%

Problem 2 or 5 is algebra

33%

USA 6 golds

32%

At least one reference of 67 appears on a problem

30%

Problem 1,2,4, or 5 has a strictly less than 25% solve rate (a solve is defined as at least 5 points)

What will happen at the 67th IMO 2026 Shanghai, China? Each answer will resolve independently of each other. Feel free to add your own questions. Other questions may include country ranks, country medals, specific individual performances, cutoffs, solve rate, AI performance, etc.

In the unforeseen circumstance that IMO 2026 does not take place, everything will resolve N/A

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/what-will-happen-at-imo-2025

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imo 2026

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