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What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)
56
แน€2.6kแน€5.7k
Jul 21
88%
Someone gets 42
88%
China 6 golds
75%
Problem 3 or 6 is combinatorics
72%
USA second place
68%
Alexander Wang top 10 (tied counts)
57%
At least 1/12 of all contestants receive at least gold
55%
Problem 2 or 5 is geometry
53%
Past IMO gold medalist gets bronze or lower
53%
At least 1/4 of all contestants receive at least silver
50%
Problem 2 or 5 is combinatorics
50%
At least 1/2 of all contestants receive at least bronze
48%
A problem mentions anything related to China
45%
Problem 1,2,4, or 5 has a < 25% solve rate (a solve is defined as at least 5 points)
45%
Problem 2 or 5 is algebra
44%
Problem 2 or 5 is number theory
35%
Problem 1 or 4 has a < 60% solve rate (a solve is defined as at least 5 points)
35%
Alexander Wang first on team USA (tied counts)
33%
A country scores 126 on a day
31%
rooi (@Incompleteusern) fakesolves an IMO problem at the IMO
28%
USA 6 golds

What will happen at the 67th IMO 2026 Shanghai, China? Each answer will resolve independently of each other. Feel free to add your own questions. Other questions may include country ranks, country medals, specific individual performances, cutoffs, solve rate, AI performance, etc.

In the unforeseen circumstance that IMO 2026 does not take place, everything will resolve N/A

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/what-will-happen-at-imo-2025

  • Update 2026-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cutoff markets have been resolved N/A, as the creator has decided not to keep them open before day 2 is over to avoid stressing contestants.

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imo 2026
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@Wintersfan For clarification, I will use the definition from this market

I have decided to N/A cutoff markets, because having these before day 2 is over may stress the contestants.

I might open a separate cutoff market but only after IMO day 2 is over.

@Wintersfan Revived this market as a throwback for the 2025 market :)

bought แน€10 YES

@Wintersfan go go go Dotted!

@Wintersfan YAY! GO DOTTED!

opened a แน€1,000 NO at 20% order

@Wintersfan 1000 mana order up at 20% NO

@Wintersfan Is this worth it for 90 mana?

bought แน€5 YES

@DottedCalculator Very funny.

I need your guys' opinion: should I include unofficial russia scores for the country rank bets?

@Wintersfan I think Russia is official this year?

@DottedCalculator Oh wow, I am not aware of that, we will see later

@RaymondChristopherTanto Source is https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jul/19/can-a-common-denominator-unite-warring-contestant-nations-at-the-international-mathematics-olympiad-ntwnfb

bought แน€20 NO

@E142 vacuously false

bought แน€20 YES

@Incompleteusern FREE MANA!

opened a แน€1,000 NO at 40% order

@Incompleteusern FREE MANA!

bought แน€10 NO

@Incompleteusern STOP!

@RaymondChristopherTanto

These are the stats I compiled from 2005-2025, a problem 1/2/4/5 that has <25% solve rate used to be common but is very rare nowadays.

(I hope I compiled the stats correctly lol, I did it manually. Again, a solve is defined as at least 5 points)

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