Resolution criteria
Pornhub's parent company Aylo announced on January 27, 2026 that it will restrict access to its platforms in the United Kingdom, effective February 2. The market resolves YES if Pornhub is blocked/inaccessible to new UK users on February 3rd, 2026. UK users who have already verified their identity will still be able to use their accounts, but new users will be unable to access the site. Resolution can be verified by attempting to access Pornhub from a UK IP address without a pre-existing verified account on February 3rd, or by checking news reports confirming the block has taken effect.
Background
Pornhub and other Aylo sites had complied with the UK's Online Safety Act (OSA), which mandated that websites with pornographic content verify the ages of visitors before showing them content that is inappropriate for minors. Instead of complying with OSA by verifying the ages of its users, Aylo will block access to platforms like Pornhub in the U.K. altogether. In October, Aylo said that traffic to Pornhub as a result of the updated legislation has fallen by 77 per cent. The same restrictions will apply to other porn sites owned by Aylo, including YouPorn and Redtube.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czr428rxg57o
Update 2026-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Workarounds and technical solutions that circumvent the block are not relevant for resolution. The market will resolve YES if Aylo has blocked access and this is credibly reported, regardless of whether some users can get around the block using technical workarounds.
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Hi @RS - can you confirm that workarounds or technical solutions which circumvent the blocking are not relevant for the resolution of this market? If Aylo applies the block as expected, but some new UK users can get around that block, presumably that doesn't prevent this market from revolving as YES? Thanks.
@SacredChicken I'm not the creator, but I'm trading under the assumption that workarounds don't count. Just about every "block" ever has workarounds, so if that were the standard nothing would ever be "blocked"
@draaglom I completely agree - I just want to check. The market's Yes probability seemed way too low unless I'm missing something.
@SacredChicken I had the same thought process. I do think there's a material chance of a "no" resolution though -- as I understand it, the relevant provisions of the OSA only come into effect in March, and it's far from unheard of in general terms for either a feature release to be delayed or for a policy to be pushed back, so maybe Aylo implements this a few days/weeks later than planned.
@SacredChicken yeah exactly. No strange technicalities or anything, if Aylo say they have blocked it, and it is reported on credibly, (I will also be in the UK on that date, I'll try in a fresh browser with no extensions and see)
@draaglom exactly right. I think this may come down to a game of chicken, Ofcom might panic and give some concession that will delay Aylo, or Aylo might blink first and extend their cutoff date