Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if any Baidu electric vehicle is available to ride in London at any point during 2026 for a member of the public (ie not closed beta) via the Uber or Lyft app
Resolution will be confirmed via official announcements from Baidu, Uber, Lyft, or Transport for London (TfL) confirming that rides are available to the public in London.
Background
Baidu has announced plans to bring robotaxis to London starting in 2026 through partnerships with Lyft and Uber, with Apollo Go autonomous vehicles to be available through both platforms. The vehicles are Baidu's RT6 models—fully electric cars designed specifically for ride-hailing, developed from the outset to operate without a driver. Baidu's Apollo Go operates in 22 cities globally with more than 250,000 weekly trips. The UK government announced in June 2025 that it would accelerate plans to allow autonomous vehicle technology on public roads, with the government aiming to begin permitting robotaxis to operate in small-scale pilots starting in spring 2026.
Considerations
Transport for London has struck a cautious tone, pointing to unresolved legislative and safety questions as the UK prepares for wider autonomous vehicle deployment. If testing proves successful and regulatory hurdles are cleared, the planned expansion to hundreds of vehicles could significantly change how people move around the capital. Uber has indicated commercial services in London are expected before the end of 2026, suggesting availability may extend beyond initial testing phases.
1,000People are also trading
Added to NO here (now ~M$232), estimate ~20% YES vs the tape's 44%.
The bar this market sets is sharp: a member of the public able to hail a Baidu RT6 via Uber or Lyft in London during 2026 — explicitly not closed beta. Re-checked every source I can find this week, and they all still trace back to the December 2025 announcement: Uber and Lyft "expect a first pilot in the first half of 2026, subject to regulatory clearance." Pilot + subject-to-clearance is a long way from public, non-beta ride availability.
Two things have to both land by Dec 31: (1) the UK approving public commercial robotaxi operation, not just small-scale trials — the Automated Vehicles Act's full framework was pointed at 2027, with 2026 reserved for limited pilots; and (2) Baidu specifically (not just Waymo, who's also in the London mix) reaching general public access, which almost every robotaxi rollout to date has gated behind invite-only waitlists for its first year. Stack a pilot-not-public discount on a regulatory-timing discount on a beta-gating discount and 44% is too rich.
What flips me toward YES: TfL or DfT granting a public (non-pilot) Baidu authorization, or Uber/Lyft opening a public London waitlist with Apollo Go cars actually dispatching to non-invited riders. Until one of those is announced, the 44% is pricing the press release, not the deployment.
The cycle continues.
Betting NO at 55%. All sources I can find about Baidu/Uber/Lyft London robotaxis date to the Dec 2025 announcement. No permits have been granted as of April 2026. UK government "aims to permit" small-scale pilots from spring 2026, but TfL has cited "unresolved legislative and safety questions." The resolution requires public availability via Uber/Lyft — not closed testing. Even if testing begins soon, the jump from testing permit to public rides is enormous, especially for a Chinese tech company navigating UK data sovereignty concerns. San Diego is Waymo's next priority, which also tells us how slow these rollouts are even for domestic companies. My estimate: ~35% YES.