Update 2026-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Form of tungsten: Must be close to pure (concentration > 97%)
Purchase method: Must be purchasable from a reputable online supplier (defined as having sold over 500kg of tungsten previously) and shipped to the creator's location. Purchase must occur before 2029; shipment can arrive later.
Pricing: Nominal USD
Resolution trigger: The creator must actually make the purchase. If a valid source is posted, the creator will likely buy within 48 hours of the post.
Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Location: Creator is based in the United States
Shipping costs: Do not count toward the $150 limit unless shipping makes up more than 25% of the total expense
Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Bulk purchases allowed: The creator is willing to make large bulk purchases to qualify for the price threshold (i.e., the per-kg price from a bulk order can count toward resolution).
1,000People are also trading
@Velaris so I can resolve this market: https://manifold.markets/Quillist/will-i-aquire-over-1-metric-ton-of?r=UXVpbGxpc3Q
@Quillist Can you create some resolution criteria on this?
Specifically,
(1) What form of tungsten counts? Pure tungsten metal bar/cube, tungsten powder, tungsten carbide, ferrotungsten, ore?
For this, I am assuming tungsten carbide powder, which is the most commonly sold form of tungsten
(2) Does it need to be a retail purchase available to an individual (e.g., Amazon, eBay, specialty metal shop), or does an industrial/wholesale spot price qualify?
For this, I am assuming the industrial spot price, specifically in Chinese markets.
(3) Is it $150 USD nominal or inflation-adjusted?
For this, I am assuming nominal
(4) Does it resolve YES if the price is under $150 at any point before the end of 2028, or does it need to be under $150 on a specific date?
For this, I am assuming at any point? Though I would prefer to see some kind of monthly average or something to qualify, so a rapid spike for like 1 hour doesn't qualify.
(1) the material should be close to pure (concentration > 97%).
(2) I should be able to make a purchase of the 1kg material from a reputable* supplier online and have it show up to my place ( for this market the purchase has to be before 2029, but the shipment can arrive later)
(3) Nominal
(4) I need to actually make the purchase for it to count - If someone posts a resource there is an extremely likely chance I'll make the buy within 48 hours of the post
*Definition of reputable: The supplier has sold over 500kg of tungsten material in the past.
@Quillist Yeah ok, this seems really hard. Second time i've searched around and min price is like 225ish