📆What will happen in 2025? [Add Responses]
240
9.3kṀ110k
Dec 31
98%
Russia retains de facto control over Crimea
97%
Biden gets hospitalised
95%
Hollow Knight Silk song released
94%
Avatar: Fire and Ash released
92%
King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025
81%
Elon removed as doge head
80%
GPT 5 releases
79%
LEMMiNO releases a new video
79%
Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025
75%
Famous global brand goes through a rebranding
74%
At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher
61%
FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025
59%
Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection
50%
MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair
46%
In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved
46%
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%
45%
Early general elections in Pakistan
43%
There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025
41%
Mike Johnson is not Speaker
36%
Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations

If any of these events were to happen before 1st January 2025, I will resolve that answer to N/A

  • Update 2025-27-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - US military conquest does not count as an event that would resolve the answer to YES

    • Greenland must join the USA voluntarily to resolve YES

  • Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - Resolution authority: NASA (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clear Death Confirmation Requirement

    • The outcome concerning King Charles will only be resolved if it is unequivocally confirmed that he is dead, not merely if there is temporary ambiguity or an apparent death.

  • Update 2025-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Children Eligibility Update:

    • Both past children and future children will be considered for the resolution criteria.

  • Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Peter Turkson elected Pope':

    • If a Pope other than Peter Turkson is elected during 2025, this specific answer will not automatically resolve to NO at that point.

    • Resolution to NO for this answer will be deferred as long as there is a possibility that the newly elected Pope could die and another papal election could occur before the market closes (end of 2025), offering Peter Turkson another chance to be elected.

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@PoliticalEconomyPK

https://abc7.com/post/small-nodule-found-joe-bidens-prostate-during-routine-exam-hospital-philadelphia/16401274/

bought Ṁ196 NO

@PoliticalEconomyPK this can resolve NO

@RedzoneITG what if the new pope dies? He might still get a chance to get elected. For this reason I will not resolve this, not now atleast

bought Ṁ75 NO

The odds of Turkson becoming Pope surely have to be below 2% now; they were 8% before the first conclave.

@SteveSokolowski resolve NO

(lol me with three comments)

(also lol me buying NO after the results are already out so i can get free mana)

You need to tag the market creator instead: @PoliticalEconomyPK

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Good to know, thank you!

@quietsnow resolved

@SteveSokolowski resolve NO

bought Ṁ60 NO

@SteveSokolowski resolve NO (the new pope is Leo XIV)

bought Ṁ2 YES

This: https://manifold.markets/RZacDQ/5-or-more-confirmed-violent-tornado

@Gameknight Can you clarify: Does this require Los Ratones to compete in Worlds, or just their roster to physically attend?

@RedzoneITG This requires LR to compete in Worlds. "To simply physically attend the event" is neither the original intent nor the common interpretation of the phrase.

bought Ṁ300 NO

@SteveSokolowski resolve no

@PoliticalEconomyPK I have edited this answer to fix an obvious typo. It's supposed to be GTA 6 not GTA 5

@PoliticalEconomyPK

@Purist

@RatUziCat

@PoliticalEconomyPK this doesn't necessarily limit to past children, future children will also count

What happens if King Charles somehow dies during the year, but is still alive at the end?

@EloideReynal i wont be resolving until its absolutely clear that he's dead

@EloideReynal he isn't Jon Snow

@JussiVilleHeiskanen 😂😂

sold Ṁ2 YES

What are you going to decide on the "o6 variant" question, given that the o series models will no longer be released with that name?

@PoliticalEconomyPK Currently trading at 5% while “putin assassinated” trades at 7%

@PoliticalEconomyPK How are we dealing with recent squirrely claims that Elon is not a govt employee but an advisor?

@PoliticalEconomyPK what evidence do you need. Wikipedia thinks it is a regular occurrence, but the market on the issue holds to a silly evidentiary standard...

@JussiVilleHeiskanen is it ok now?

@PoliticalEconomyPK you tell me

@JussiVilleHeiskanen i have edited the answer to make it more precise "Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives" i think it makes it more concrete now

@PoliticalEconomyPK certainly easier to resolve. It is hard to fit resolution criteria in just so many characters

@PoliticalEconomyPK personally I would have been satisfied with resolution criteria given as a comment

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