This market takes into consideration the status of TikTok on June 20th, 2025, 00:00 PST. So any upcoming bans/acquisitions will not matter if they aren't legally finalised and already in place.

Resolves to "Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance" if the vast majority of the public can still legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US and visit TikTok.com without needing a VPN. (edit: ByteDance must own a majority position, aka greater than 50%).

Resolves to "Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance" if the above criteria are true, however majority ownership is held by a company that is not ByteDance Ltd. This could include a new company formed with ties to ByteDance.

Resolves to "Completely banned in the US" if the vast majority of the public can not legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US, can not watch content on their TikTok app, and can not access TikTok.com without needing a VPN.

Resolves to "Restricted in the US and owned by ByteDance" if meaningful restrictions have been put into place but some US residents can still legally access some TikTok content. Note that any existing restrictions, such as those on government employees, will not be taken into account. This could include, but is not limited to:

• Watching existing content on desktop without being logged in.

• Existing users can still use TikTok but new users cannot download it.

• TikTok is only available in some "lite" version in the US with significantly less features than in other countries.

Resolves to "integrated with another app/platform" if TikTok no longer exists as its own app and has been acquired or merged with another company's platform. Note that this is similar to "Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance", however, the distinct difference is that for this option TikTok should no longer exist as its own app/website in the US (an archive version of some sort would not count). Criteria clarification: If it is first banned, and then in response they integrated by April 1st then it will resolve to this answer and not completely banned.

• Update 2025-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Ambiguous Scenario:

  • In the unusual case where TikTok’s app is unavailable in the US but the website remains accessible, and ByteDance does not hold a majority ownership:

  • The resolution will be split 50:50 between Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance and Restricted in the US and owned by ByteDance.

  • This adjustment is intended to fairly cover the scenario under the existing market structure.