It is astounding to me.

I've been making tons of mana using bets on pure, informationless, brownian motion. Even setting drift to 0 made mana.

But for some reason, I do not want to bet that it will go down this time.

With a drift of 0 and std dev of .4, there's a 44% chance it goes from 89400 to 75000 by April. compared to the current 28% odds, that's an expected profit of nearly 50% on your investment in just a few months (put in 28 m, expect to win 44 mana). And that's a pretty reasonable std dev, .47 made me tons of mana; .3 is wayyy lower than it has historically been. The .4 comes from comparing a bunch of markets about "BTC hit this number by 2026" and figuring out what standard deviation minimized their disagreements with each other.

But I just don't want to bet yes here any more *shrug. My mental model has changed. I think we're trapped between 80 and 100 until the next big jump, and I don't want to bet that that jump will be downwards :/ Maybe someone else will trust the math more than me and can make more mana than me!

Also... why the heck am I not buying more BTC then? shakes head, stumbles away.

When I try to do the same thing for the current markets I'm tracking:

https://manifold.markets/PoliticalEconomyPK/bitcoin-falls-below-75000-in-next-6?r=ZGVhZ29shttps://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/bitcoin-under-85k-in-januaryhttps://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/bitcoin-below-82k-in-januaryhttps://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/bitcoin-below-80k-in-januaryhttps://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/bitcoin-100k-in-januaryhttps://manifold.markets/strutheo/if-bitcoin-reaches-120k-before-thehttps://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/bitcoin-150k-in-2026https://manifold.markets/DannyqnOht/will-btc-go-below-65k-by-march-1-20https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/bitcoin-below-52k-by-march-2026

I get that the drift should be like 50% growth per year, and volatility .36. How are people suddenly so much more confident in their predictions (lower volatility) and simultaneously saying it's gonna have a HUGE growth?

Maybe I should just trust the math...
And maybe I should buy more BTC too. Eh, I already have enough if it's gonna go that high.

Still dazed.

Last year it didn't fall below 75K

In the last 5 years it was mostly below 75K

Everyone is fleeing the dollar into silver or gold

As much as I'd like to see bitcoin fail, I'll vote NO

I suggest updating the title "next 6 mo" -> "By April 25 2026" so new people can quickly tell how long this really means.

@DannyqnOht done

@DannyqnOht also note the description specifically states it's on a closing basis (CMC closes daily at midnight UTC), not intraday. I figure this should lower the odds somewhat.