As an informal classification, "triple A" games are considered high-budget (more than $50m), high-profile (more than 1 million copies sold) video games in any platform. This question resolves in the release year of a triple A game that publicly announces the use of a LLM as an in-game feature.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2024, followed by Never and 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (18 traders, as of Mar 25, 2026).

In what year a LLM will appear as an in-game feature of a "triple A" game?

Before 2027, will LLMs be able to play videogames in real time?

22% chance

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

91% chance

Will Runescape add an LLM to the game by 2040?

43% chance

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

6/4/29

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

79% chance

Will a video game involving LLM dialogue be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2028?

17% chance

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

14% chance

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

17% chance

There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030

83% chance

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

34% chance

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