This market resolves based on whether federal employees who accept the January 2025 deferred resignation offer receive their full promised compensation and benefits through their resignation date (September 30, 2025 or earlier if they choose).

• Resolves YES if all accepting employees receive their full promised compensation and benefits through their resignation date.

• Resolves NO if there is any legislation, executive order, or other action that reduces or eliminates the promised compensation/benefits for those who accepted the offer.

• This question should act as a guide to a federal worker making a decision today, so the relevant question for resolution is whether someone who accepts will end up thinking "I got stiffed".

Sources:

• https://www.opm.gov/fork

• https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/01/trump-reportedly-will-offer-buyouts-all-2-million-federal-workers/402571/

• https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-offers-all-federal-workers-a-buyout-with-7-months-pay

• Update 2025-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves YES even if a handful of resigning employees are fired before September 30.

  • Resolves NO if there is a successful effort to deny a substantial number of employees their full compensation and benefits.

• Update 2025-01-29 (PST): - Resolves NO if employees are left waiting a long time for their compensation and benefits, leading to dissatisfaction with the offer. (AI summary of creator comment)