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MANIFOLD
Will the (Offerato.com) project become a unicorn startup before 2028?
12
Ṁ100Ṁ2.1k
2027
8%
chance
@Quroe I have launched a project, and—partly for motivation and partly to find a co-founder (especially given the technical expertise found here on Manifold)—I am setting up a "Yes" market based on whether the project achieves a valuation exceeding $1 billion. The outcome will be determined by asking ChatGPT on December 31, 2027.

  • Update 2026-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market resolves YES if the project's valuation exceeds $1 billion.

    • The resolution will be determined by asking ChatGPT on December 31, 2027.

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@Quroe I have launched a project, and—partly for motivation and partly to find a co-founder (especially given the technical expertise found here on Manifold)—I am setting up a "Yes" market based on whether the project achieves a valuation exceeding $1 billion. The outcome will be determined by asking ChatGPT on December 31, 2027.

bought Ṁ10 NO

No company spamming Manifold could possibly be worth all that much.

@ChurlishGambit no one spam you no one ask for your money

@Offerato "Spam" does not mean "asking for money." This is very clearly just an ad for whatever your goofy company is, & you didn't even go to the trouble of making an alt. It's transparent & annoying. It's spam.

@ChurlishGambit First, take a look at the project before spouting such discouraging words. Second, destiny is not in your hands; you are just an ordinary person, no different from any other NPC

@Offerato Calling potential customers "NPCs" is a great marketing strategy. Getting into the AI bubble right as it's popping is going to go very nicely for you!

@ChurlishGambit This market does not appear to be spam to me. The market creator paid for the privilege of making the market with mana, and it does appear to have predictive value.

@Offerato Can you define what a "unicorn startup" means for the purposes of this market? What would resolve this YES, and where is the line between that and a NO?

@Quroe thanks, I appreciate this

@Quroe I have launched a project, and—partly for motivation and partly to find a co-founder (especially given the technical expertise found here on Manifold)—I am setting up a "Yes" market based on whether the project achieves a valuation exceeding $1 billion. The outcome will be determined by asking ChatGPT on December 31, 2027.

bought Ṁ894 YES

There is a high probability of this, as the project is based on a new global trend where UCP replaces conventional advertising.