If any account with the username "@realDonaldTrump" is banned by January 1 2026, resolves YES, otherwise resolves NO.
I am @notrealDonaldTrump's / @realDonaldTrump's sister (a.k.a. Elizabeth) and so I think this will definitely happen
Update 2025-12-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whether the creator's brother's main account on Manifold is banned, rather than strictly requiring the username to be "@realDonaldTrump" at the time of resolution.
Update 2025-12-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A partial ban (where some functions are restricted but the account can still use some portion of the site) will count as a ban for resolution purposes.
1,000π Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ1,727 | |
| 2 | αΉ48 | |
| 3 | αΉ20 | |
| 4 | αΉ17 | |
| 5 | αΉ10 |
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@realDonaldTrump Just let me know if you want to gift the profits to your sister for fun and to be a good brother.
@realDonaldTrump If you can last that long without getting banned through the natural course of events.
@JohnSmithb9be I kinda like it, it functions like oversight. He'll think twice before doing anything that could get him banned, because he's got 1000s of mana on the line.
The part that's harder for him to price in is whether he'll get banned in the future for something he did in the past.
@Eliza You donβt think he would be dissuaded by losing all of his mana by getting banned? My comment was also tongue-in-cheek as the real Trump complains about witch hunts.
@OOPS what if he gets a "partial ban" such that some functions are restricted but he can still use some portion of the site? Like not being able to create markets but can still comment, or similar.
@MaxE I think you should have a market about that. "If a mod buys a bunch of Yes and bans Donald, will the mod be punished".
The ban button is really easy to access and I'm very experienced with it.