This will resolve according to EPA AirNow data for San Francisco for 1/1/2026 through 12/31/2026 inclusive. Update 2026-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Based on daily average AQI (not daily peak) Will resolve using data available immediately at end of 2026 (not finalized AQS data from mid-2027) Based on San Francisco County numbers (not the SF-Oakland-Berkeley CBSA)

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 0, followed by 1-5 and 6-10 are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of Mar 25, 2026).

How many days of bad (>150 AQI) air will SF suffer in 2026?

Ṁ1kṀ8.8k

2027

56%

20%

1-5

12%

6-10

11-20

21-30

1.3%

31-40

41-50

51+

This will resolve according to EPA AirNow data for San Francisco for 1/1/2026 through 12/31/2026 inclusive.

Update 2026-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Based on daily average AQI (not daily peak)
- Will resolve using data available immediately at end of 2026 (not finalized AQS data from mid-2027)
- Based on San Francisco County numbers (not the SF-Oakland-Berkeley CBSA)

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@NicholasWeininger I'm assuming this is based on daily average, not daily peak, right? Will this resolve based on EPA's Air Data immediately at the end of the year, or when AQS data for 2026 is finalized around mid-2027? Is it based on the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley CBSA, or San Francisco County?

@Dssc Yes, daily average. I'll aim to resolve it immediately at the end of the year based on the data available at that time, and base it on the San Francisco County numbers.