Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Iran and the United States announce a formal, binding agreement on Iran's nuclear program by February 28, 2026. The agreement must be publicly confirmed by official statements from both governments. Resolution will be based on announcements from the U.S. State Department, White House, or Iranian Foreign Ministry. A preliminary framework or non-binding agreement does not qualify; the deal must constitute a substantive accord addressing nuclear restrictions and sanctions relief.

Background

Negotiations between Iran and the U.S. began in April 2025 following a letter from President Trump to Supreme Leader Khamenei, with Trump setting a two-month deadline for reaching an agreement. After that deadline passed without an agreement, Israel attacked Iran. As of late January 2026, Iran and the United States have confirmed opening lines of communication to work out a deal, with Trump stating Iran was "seriously talking" with Washington. Iranian security official Ali Larijani said a framework for talks with Washington is being built.

Key sticking points include Iran's insistence on retaining its enriched uranium stockpile within its borders while the U.S. demands transfer to a third country, and Iran's demand for guarantees protecting it if the U.S. withdraws from or violates the agreement. Iran has stated its missile program will not be subject to negotiations.

Considerations

Experts note it will take "enormous diplomatic effort" for meaningful negotiations given Trump's 2018 withdrawal from the previous nuclear deal, making Iran unlikely to trust him as a negotiation partner. Despite recent statements about talks progressing, there is no public sign of any direct talks with the United States. Congress has indicated it has the right to weigh in on any deal and could reverse it.

This description was generated by AI.