Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States conducts any military strike on targets located within Iran's borders by March 31, 2026. Strikes include air strikes, missile attacks, drone strikes, or any other offensive military action. The resolution will be based on official U.S. government statements, credible news reporting from major international outlets, or public acknowledgment by U.S. military officials. Accidental strikes or strikes conducted without U.S. authorization do not count.

Background

On June 22, 2025, the United States Air Force and Navy attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran (Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan) with bunker buster bombs and Tomahawk missiles. Iran responded by attacking a U.S. base in Qatar.

On January 28, 2026, President Donald Trump sharply intensified his threats to the Islamic Republic, suggesting that if Tehran did not agree to a set of demands, he could mount an attack "with speed and violence". The U.S. administration has demanded a permanent end to Iran's uranium enrichment program, limits to ballistic missile development, and a cutting off of Tehran's support for proxy groups including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

The USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, is one of several military assets the US has deployed to the Arabian Sea in recent days. This deployment represents one of the most significant U.S. military buildups in the Middle East in recent years, second in scale only to operations that preceded targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in mid-2025.

Considerations

Iran and the United States have confirmed opening lines of communication to work out a deal and avoid military action as tensions rise in the Gulf. However, Iran's supreme leader warned Sunday that any attack by the United States would spark a "regional war" in the Mideast. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates both ruled out the use of their airspace or territory to launch attacks on Iran, which could constrain U.S. operational options.

This description was generated by AI.