Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Burnham leaves office on a day listed as an answer, that answer will resolve to 50%.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 1 September 2026, followed by 17 November 2026 and 7 September 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of Aug 10, 2026).

On which days will Andy Burnham be UK Prime Minister

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2030

98%

1 September 2026

95%

17 November 2026

92%

7 September 2026

92%

12 December 2026

92%

1 January 2027

87%

16 February 2027

76%

12 April 2027

76%

2 June 2027

76%

18 July 2027

76%

31 August 2027

76%

3 November 2027

76%

6 November 2027

67%

1 January 2028

66%

16 February 2028

50%

1 January 2029

45%

1 January 2030

34%

1 January 2031

24%

2 March 2027

10%

21 May 2041

10%

28 March 2040

Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Burnham leaves office on a day listed as an answer, that answer will resolve to 50%.

Market context

Elections

UK Politics

UK Conservative Party

Labour Party (UK)

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Is it possible to edit the answers such that sorting alphabetically sorts them by date? For example in the YYYY-MM-DD format and if that is too hard to read, you can still add the current format behind it. So, for example, "1 September 2026" would become "2026-09-01 (1 September 2026)".