Just to be super clear, is this only if the price at close on Dec 31, 2027 is above $2,000 adjusted for splits, right? E.g. If it closes up tomorrow to $100,000 and then back to $1999 at close Dec 31, 2027 this would resolve “No”? I ask because “by the end” in title suggests any point and the description suggests it could be only the closing price on Dec 31, 2027. I have to price those pretty differently. Thanks!

@benmanns

If it closes up tomorrow to $100,000 and then back to $1999 at close Dec 31, 2027 this would resolve “No”?

correct, it would resolve no

@NexVeridian can we argue about this? If the intent is to reflect ARK's prediction, I believe it should be enough to reach 2k at any moment in time from now to the end of 2027

@SimoneRomeo

from https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-tesla-price-target-2027

"in 2027"

Conclusion
Given the updates outlined in this article, ARK’s price target for Tesla is $2,000 per share in 2027. Our bear and bull cases suggest that TSLA could be valued between ~$1,400 and $2,500 per share in 2027

this market should be trading similarly to this option if it existed, TSLA Jan 28 Call 2000

also this question, which was created after might have better wording

@NexVeridian where in the link you posted is mentioned that it refers to the last day of 2027?

@TonyPepperoni i'm looking to liquidate 12.3k more NO shares. lmk if you're willing to quote a price

@omou Sure, 2027 is is later than I normally do large bets on, but I’d do it at 20%. If that works, I’ll make a limit order

@TonyPepperoni works for me

@omou Done!

@TonyPepperoni done, thanks!

What happened here yesterday???

@Thomas42 It seems like Teddy Weverka sold his NO.
I doubt he completely changed his opinion on the correct probability, I assume he wanted some mana.

@Thomas42 https://manifold.markets/Ernie/top-car-company-licenses-tesla-auto#12FYCRzrZ421I5CRbL20

This stock is already trading well above what Fundamentals dictate. TSLA market cap is 16 times that of Ford. Ford has higher Gross Profit.

Growth used to explain some of the excess of market cap compared to Gross Profit. If TSLA is going to maintain its multiple in market cap, it will have to grow its Gross Profit.

You can bet on when TSLA Gross Profit will exceed Ford here:

Will TSLA make higher Gross Profit in Q4?

Will TSLA Gross Profit pass Ford in Q1, 2024?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/27/cathie-wood-2000-tesla-price-target-utter-nonsense/

"Ark Invest's $2,000 price target for Tesla by 2027, which implies a market cap of $6.3 trillion, has virtually no chance of coming to fruition."

More short term: https://manifold.markets/SenneVanHeghe/will-tsla-close-above-300-on-septem?r=U2VubmVWYW5IZWdoZQ

Will $TSLA close above $300 on September 1st, 2023?

39% chance. Will resolve to yes if the closing price on September 1st 2023 of $TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) exceeds $300. Will resolve to no otherwise