Will the Nick Bostrom email seem in hindsight to have caused more internal damage to EA than the FTX crisis?
Will the Nick Bostrom email seem in hindsight to have caused more internal damage to EA than the FTX crisis?
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Close date updated to 2024-01-01 3:59 pm
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This seems a little low. FTX was a much more consequential event, but there is much more community agreement on how to interpret it, and much less of people believing that the other sides interpretive frame is deeply ideologically wrong/evidence of bad character.
Is there a reason this market's closing today? And when and how are you going to judge "in hindsight"?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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