50% chance. Around the time of the election, I will attempt to look at polls in the last month which both include and exclude him. If the D minus R margin is better in polls without RFK, this will resolve YES. If it is better in polls with RFK, this will resolve NO. In the event that it is genuinely too close to call (say, margin changes <0.3%) or too low of a sample (say, <5 polls) this will resolve N/A. If he doesn't run as independent or doesn't last the entire race, also resolves N/A. In the event of significant controversy regarding any of these conditions, I will contact whatever trustworthy-ish users I can and resolve according to their recommendations.