According to Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction This resolves when medical marijuana is legal at a federal level. Update 2025-12-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Changing the schedule of marijuana (classifying it as a lower risk/priority drug) does not constitute legalizing it.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 38, followed by 44 and 43 are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of Jun 13, 2026).

How many states will legalize medical marijuana before it becomes legal federally?

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How many states will legalize medical marijuana before it becomes legal federally?

Ṁ360Ṁ289

2033

21%

14%

11%

19%

21%

45-50

According to Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction

This resolves when medical marijuana is legal at a federal level.

Update 2025-12-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Changing the schedule of marijuana (classifying it as a lower risk/priority drug) does not constitute legalizing it.

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I am unclear what just happened. Somebody said Trump changed the schedule marihuana is on. Does that constitute legalizing it?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen He hasn't signed it, but there are rumors Trump will change the schedule of marijuana. That wouldn't legalize it though, it would basically classify it as a lower risk/priority drug.