This market resolves YES if the second stage of SpaceX's 10th full stack launch of Starship successfully reaches its intended orbital or near-orbital trajectory; reenters mostly in one piece; performs it's flip manoeuver; and reduces its velocity enough that I'd consider it a soft touchdown (an explosion upon contact with the ocean would not necessarily disqualify it so long as it's slow enough and controlled)
Otherwise if the ship fails at any earlier point in flight, or collides with the ocean at significant speed or at a notable angle, this market will resolve NO
The market will resolve N/A if a soft touchdown on the ocean isn't targeted, or otherwise if the intended flight profile is sufficiently different from expected such that this market no longer applies
I won't participate in case resolution is ambiguous
In the event resolution is ambiguous, I may use wording from SpaceX, wording from reputable space commentators, and consultation with traders to inform my decision
How precisely it hits its target location for the soft touchdown is not relevant to the resolution, so long as it's very roughly in the right part of the world (let's say give or take 5000km, if it's more than that out, it's fair to say it failed at some earlier point in the flight)
I will likely choose to close the market just before launch to recoup some mana spent on creation
Though if you notice it's closed well before launch, feel free to ping me to reopen it
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https://www.space.com/news/live/spacex-starship-missions-updates
soft touchdown! and then it exploded
Oops, Dewey beat Truman... Please note this is FAKE NEWS, This DID NOT happen, do not trade based on this!!!!
@Techiavellian Then flight 10 has not launched yet and we wait for when it does launch. At least I would hope that is what happens.