Will an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe occur before 2100?
7
130Ṁ1972101
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If for any reason at least 50% of the sunlight currently available gets blocked for a significant amount of time (such that traditional agriculture would be rendered useless), this market resolves as Yes.
If some sunlight will be blocked, but not in a globally significant way, the market resolves as No.
Edit: It has to qualify as an existential catastrophe to resolve as Yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?
80% chance
Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?
28% chance
Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?
47% chance
Will Humanity Obstruct the Sun before 2030?
7% chance
Will a solar storm cause a >24-hour internet outage in any top 10 populous city by 2025 end?
15% chance
Will the Sun be eaten by 2030?
1% chance
Will a terrestrial natural disaster not caused by anthropogenic climate change wipe out humanity by 2100?
3% chance
Will the Sun be eaten by 2040?
5% chance
Will someone actually “dim the sun” by 2035?
19% chance
Non-AI catastrophe before 2100?
25% chance