(There were 261 orbital launch attempts in 2024)
This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.
If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.
See the full list of markets at https://manifold.markets/news/everyday-astronaut-2025-predictions
Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will count orbital launch attempts, not successes. Failed launches that were attempted will be included in the count.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
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@Multicore I don't know if you're just planning to wait till the end of the year or are happy to resolve early but either way: 301+ can technically resolve YES:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_in_spaceflight#Orbital_launches