Will a major new armed conflict break out in the Horn of Africa — involving any combination of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, or Somalia — before January 1, 2028?”
Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if there is a sustained armed conflict between the national armed forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea at any point between the market's creation and 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
"Sustained armed conflict" is defined as an ongoing engagement involving significant, coordinated military operations between the state forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea, lasting for at least seven consecutive days or involving more than 100 combat-related fatalities.
Resolution will be based on credible, consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official statements from international monitoring bodies (e.g., the United Nations or African Union). Minor border skirmishes, isolated incidents, or rhetoric do not constitute a sustained armed conflict for the purpose of this market.
Background
Ethiopia and Eritrea share a long, complex history of border disputes, most notably the border war from 1998 to 2000. While a peace agreement was signed in 2018, tensions have remained high, particularly following the Tigray War, during which Eritrean forces were widely reported to have supported the Ethiopian federal government. The status of border areas and the shifting alliances within the Horn of Africa remain significant points of geopolitical instability.
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1,000People are also trading
Eritrea barely has a population, going to war should be the last thing they want to do.
@Hakari Maybe they can run a port together, in Eritrea, for goods that go from/to both countries.
Or maybe Ethiopia could offer something, maybe just money, sort of rent a port.
Or maybe it could be an entirely Eritrean port, but guarantee that goods can go back and forth between the two countries when either wanted to do international trade, which they should be able to anyway.
Maybe even sell a thin strip of land to Ethiopia for a nation altering large amount of money. Eritrea's population is so low that it's practical to look on the map and count by hand all the individual buildings in the county, and there's a whole lot of nothing going on in the south east of Eritrea near the border with Djibouti. Sort of "you can have a little empty desert up to the sea, we can have our whole population live in mansions if they want to".
@AlanTennant rationally that's how it should work, yes. The military bases on Eritrean soil should also hopefully act as a deterrent.
But TIA -
bad blood,
Eritrea split from Ethiopia relatively recently - Ethiopia could view it as reclamation and a matter of right, and a commercial transaction,
both govts not wanting to 'look weak',
Ethiopia not being particularly rich enough to shell out the max life altering money,
Probably other reasons.