This can be any type of Starship, tankers, depots, testing vehicles, etc. They don't need to transfer fuel for this market to resolve Yes, but the docking itself has to be successful.
If the docking happens in an unexpected way, like with a long hose or something, that would also count as Yes. Docking a Dragon to a Starship is not sufficient.
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-70faa1b11c89
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-5c7f9f1f2a7f
See also:
/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
Artemis 2 timeline: /Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026
Artemis 3 timeline: /Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
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Musk said they'll attempt this next year (26:40 in the video):
https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1776669097490776563
So v unlikely to be this year
Starship is currently approved for five lunches per year at Starbase, and is building a pad at the cape that I don't expect to be operational this year. I think it's possible SpaceX could apply for and get approval to launch more times than 5, but the fact that they have not applied so far makes me think it's unlikely to happen. And conditional on launching 5 times this year, I think it's unlikely that there will be any docking attempted.
With five launches a docking test would still be possible, but it would have to be a high priority, and I think it's probably behind re-entry, recovery, and re-use, which docking directly conflicts with by requiring a Starship to remain in space between launches. Testing propellant transfer in space is an important priority, but it can be tested within one Starship, which SpaceX plans to do.
Maybe this is possible, but it would require Starship progress in 2024 to be insanely faster than 2023. This market probability seems way too high. Am I missing something?
@Multicore SpaceX often surprises. Like they might go for orbital on the next flight without ever having achieved suborbital. I'd say this market should be below 50 but any high confidence either way seems misplaced.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?