MANIFOLD
Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰
52
Ṁ34kṀ240k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES
Groq
Resolved
NO
OpenAI
Resolved
NO
Anthropic
Resolved
NO
Perplexity
Resolved
NO
xAI
Resolved
NO
DataBricks
Resolved
NO
Mistral AI
Resolved
NO
ElevenLabs (audio)
Resolved
NO
Hugging Face
Resolved
NO
Devin (Cognition)
Resolved
NO
Magic (coding)
Resolved
NO
Figure AI
Resolved
NO
Suno (music)
Resolved
NO
SSI (Ilya Sutskever)
Resolved
NO
Cohere
Resolved
NO
Pinecone (database)
Resolved
NO
Runway AI
Resolved
NO
Midjourney
Resolved
NO
Stability AI
Resolved
NO
Grammarly

With the second Trump presidency, Lina Khan will be gone, and the Big Tech will be allowed to buy companies again. Especially with prominent VCs like David Sacks joining the administration.
https://deepnewz.com/law/lina-khan-leaves-ftc-after-winning-every-case-one-year-sparking-debate-on-anti-a0670b9a

Recent AI fundraises include

  • Perplexity at $9B valuation

  • Anthropic at $60B valuation

  • DataBricks $62B valuation

  • xAI also about $60B valuation

  • ...


None of these companies have revenue that's a fraction of the money being raised, apart from DataBricks perhaps.

Are we going to see consolidation or acquisitions, now that these may not be rejected by FTC and DOJ every time?

Will Amazon or Apple buy Perplexity? Will Amazon buy Anthropic?

It's hard to imagine xAI being bought by any company, other than a merger with Tesla? That would count...

In 2024 the biggest AI acquisition was Google's very strange quasi-acquisition of Character.AI for $2.5B. OpenAI bought one smallish company...

Please suggest other companies that could possibly be acquired (and clearly for more than $1B) that should be added to this market. I asked Grok for the top 50 AI startups by reported valuation.


To quality for an acquisition... a company must be

  • bought or merged into a larger entity

  • acquisition price must be over $1B -- although if the price is close we will err on side of YES... $500M will not count, $900M will definitely count

  • weird non-standard acquisitions count

  • [for when Sam Altman and Greg Brockman were fired by OpenAI board, if they moved to Microsoft and took the team with them... that would have counted assuming over $1B would be issued to group hires or paid to OpenAI]

  • deals announced in 2025 will count, even if not completed in the year -- or even if they are cancelled later (like NVIDIA acquisition of ARM)



Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ7,193
2Ṁ4,260
3Ṁ3,273
4Ṁ1,312
5Ṁ925
Sort by:

@mods market creator is inactive

bought Ṁ250 NO

@Moscow25 I’m pretty sure Groq was not actually acquired despite the high prob this is at… although it may qualify under “weird or nonstandard”

let me know any interesting billion dollar AI startups I’m missing….

Of these 20 companies, how many would you guess are acquired (or let’s just say have serious merger talks with offer made) in 2025?

0-2? 2-4? More than 5?

bought Ṁ50 NO

Arb

bought Ṁ250 NO

@MingCat 100 mana puny market

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Moscow25 True, but it was still at 15%. Personally I'd update much closer to that than 55%

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy