What will be the final casualty ratio between Gaza and Israel in the 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict?
What will be the final casualty ratio between Gaza and Israel in the 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict?
8
610Ṁ267
Jan 1
3%
<1
3%
1-2
4%
2-3
10%
3-5
17%
5-7
17%
7-10
12%
10-15
7%
15-25
3%
25-40
24%
>40

Both civilian and military deaths will be included, including indirect via e.g. food blockades/death marches. Will move the close date back as appropriate.

Arab-Israeli Conflict
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Death
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
1y

If the value is e.g. 10 (boundary), how does it resolve?

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules