This market resolves YES if the uranium spot price averaged over the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds $115 per pound U3O8 by 2031-03-31.
Measurement methodology:
Calculate average uranium spot price during the 15-month period ending 3 months before the settlement date
For 2031-03-31 settlement: measure average price from 2030-10-02 to 2031-12-31
Use daily spot price data from authoritative uranium market sources
"Spot price" means uranium oxide (U3O8) spot price, not long-term contract prices
YES if:
Verified average spot price in the measurement window is ≥$115/lb
Multiple sources confirm pricing through the period
NO if:
Average spot price remains below $115/lb
Only peak/spot prices (not average) would exceed threshold
Resolution sources (priority order):
UxC (The Ux Consulting Company) weekly spot price indicators
TradeTech Nuclear Fuel Weekly Spot Price Indicator
Numerco nuclear fuel price reports
Cameco uranium market data disclosures
Major commodity data providers (S&P Global, Bloomberg)
1,000Given that spot is already near or above the threshold and the averaging/lag structure smooths volatility over five more years, the risk here is more about an unexpectedly deep and persistent bust than about failing to ever clear $115. I’d lean meaningfully long relative to the current market price unless you have a strong contrarian view that the present nuclear/uranium bull thesis will decisively fail.