Resolution criteria
The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated a countervailing duty (CVD) investigation of imports of unwrought palladium from the Russian Federation on August 19, 2025. This market resolves YES if any formal import restrictions (tariffs, duties, quotas, or bans) on Russian palladium are implemented by January 1, 2026. This includes preliminary or final determinations that impose duties or restrictions on unwrought palladium from Russia under HTSUS subheadings 7110.21.0000 or 7110.29.0000.
Resolution will be determined by checking the U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. International Trade Commission official notices at https://www.commerce.gov and https://www.usitc.gov, as well as U.S. Customs and Border Protection enforcement actions.
Background
On July 31, 2025, Sibanye-Stillwater filed a petition requesting the US government impose tariffs on Russian palladium imports. The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated a countervailing duty investigation on August 19, 2025, and the deadline for the preliminary determination was postponed to no later than December 29, 2025. The estimated dumping margin for unwrought palladium from Russia is 828.09 percent.
Russia, primarily through mining giant Nornickel, controls approximately 40% of global palladium production. Russian palladium imports to the US increased 42% year-on-year to over 500,000 troy ounces during January-May 2025. Palladium's most common application is in automotive catalytic converters, where it helps to decrease pollution.
Considerations
While the US has implemented multiple rounds of sanctions targeting various Russian industries, PGMs have notably remained exempt from these measures. The preliminary determination deadline falls just two days before the market resolution date, creating timing uncertainty. The US government's review process for this petition is expected to take approximately 13 months for a final determination, meaning a decision would likely arrive in late 2026. Any restrictions implemented by January 1, 2026 would likely be preliminary duties rather than final determinations.
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