Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on Dec 1st, 2025, CATL (or its subsidiary) receives government approval that renews or reissues the mining license authorizing production to resume at the Jianxiawo (枧下窝) lithium‑bearing ceramic clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi (Yifeng/Fengxin counties). Acceptable proof: an official company regulatory filing or an approval/notice from the competent natural‑resources authority. Otherwise resolves NO.
Verification links (any one suffices):
CATL regulatory filings (stock 300750) on CNINFO or SZSE.
CNINFO company disclosures (search stock code 300750): https://www.cninfo.com.cn/
SZSE disclosure portal: https://www.szse.cn/disclosure/listed/notice/
Government notices for mining rights approvals in Yichun/Jiangxi:
Jiangxi natural‑resources online trading system (used for Yichun mining rights notices): https://zrzy.jxggzyjy.cn
Clarifications: provisional/conditional approvals that explicitly allow mining to resume count; exploration permits, processing/refining approvals, or approvals for other Yichun assets do not. Name or holding‑company changes still count if they clearly refer to the same Jianxiawo mine.
Background
On August 9, 2025, the mining license for CATL’s Yichun project expired; CATL confirmed on August 11 that mining was suspended and that it is applying for renewal to restart operations. (reuters.com, ithome.com)
Local authorities required multiple Yichun lithium mines to complete reserve‑verification reports by September 30, 2025, as part of heightened oversight, contributing to uncertainty over renewals. (finance.eastmoney.com)
Considerations
The mine referred to in Chinese filings/media is Jianxiawo/枧下窝; look for that name (often described as a lithium‑bearing ceramic clay/lepidolite deposit) tied to CATL or its controlled entities in approvals or company disclosures. (ithome.com)
Related markets
Dec 2025 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-CuREsOyEhZ
Jan 2026 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-qz65RqIZsy
Feb 2026 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-CuREsOyEhZ
Mar 2026 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-sdqASghZEh
Apr 2026 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-NnIUsAUC8g
If it helps...
The manifoldbot Python package makes it easy to participate in markets like this one.
Update 2025-11-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the permit is received before December 1st but only allows mining to resume after December 1st, the market will resolve YES. The key criterion is when the permit/approval is received, not when mining operations actually resume.
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@felixx fwiw this was posted Dec 6th:
https://www.nbd.com.cn/rss/sohu/articles/4170613.html
Investigative reporters checked on the mine and it was closed as of Dec 5th.
@felixx that they didn't restart as planned, and the description doesn't seem consistent with e.g. having been licensed but just delayed in some practical way (or there would be visible activity).
I don't think the market as worded requires affirmative proof-of-no-license though:
Acceptable proof: an official company regulatory filing or an approval/notice from the competent natural‑resources authority. Otherwise resolves NO.
It's clear we haven't seen "acceptable proof" and so we're in the "otherwise" branch.
@draaglom I asked what if theres no information on when the license is received, but got ignored. The resolution criteria assumes that this information exists, thats the problem
@felixx this is getting dangerously close to bullying the market creator. Please stop. If they resolved it No, it's a No. That's how the site works.
@Eliza I feel like this is mostly (not totally) an overreaction, and also a misrepresentation of how Manifold works in 2025. If it was an egregious resolution it would likely get overturned. But as far as I can see it isn't.
@JoshuaWilkes Okay, I overreacted. It is okay to ask questions of the market creator a reasonable number of times.
@creator if the permit is received before December 1st but only allows mining to resume after December 1st, how does this market resolve?
it's over(-ish)
@brod i’d think so, but my interpretation of the article was this preparation was based on the earliest possible time it could reopen, and if approval could happen earlier they would prepare to be ready earlier, but I could easily be mistaken, not sure what that assumption is based on
Hey @brod @Simon74fe @ian @Bayesian @AmmonLam anyone wanna give me some context for this market? Would love to write a quick newsletter on it!
context:
everyone asking their favourite llms to estimate the probability in a loop because we have almost no information and know almost no priors about this topic and are clueless (at least that's the case for me)
also: nervously time decaying this market by risking more and more mana everyday
@bens The main context is it relates to real-world markets for "lithium", you can find lots of stories about this if you search online:
The most active lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surged by 8% to hit the price limit up after the announcement, while shares of listed lithium miners in China and Australia soared more than 10%.
The speculation in these articles seems to be related to how reducing production of lithium can influence the market value. If production were to resume, then the market may move the other direction.
This market was created within a day or two of that event.
@bens The only trade I made so far was buying YES when I saw they announced the transfer fee, because that seemed like a positive update
@bens Its an even that is followed closely by the mining community and has significant impact on the supply side.
@bens I searched for Chinese articles on this and there’s not much news on the topic over the last month