Where will human germline gene editing resulting in a live birth first occur legally?
5
275Ṁ2152040
34%
USA
78%
China
50%
Singapore
50%
South Korea
50%
Israel
24%
Taiwan
20%
Japan
22%
Canada
13%
United Kingdom
20%
Semi-autonomous charter city or network state (like Prospera)
30%
Other country, not in a semi-autonomous zone
This resolves to the location where the gene editing occurs, which may be different from the location where the baby is born.
Not all answers are mutually exclusive. For example, if it occurred in a semi-autonomous charter city within the borders of the US, then both answers would resolve YES.
Background reading from Gene Smith for those interested:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfrSZaf3JC8vJdbZL/how-to-make-superbabies
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
In which year will the first baby be born as the result of legal germline gene editing?
Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?
79% chance
Will any genetically modified human embryo be legally born by the end of 2025?
35% chance
When will commercial gene-editing therapy be available?
2041
Before 2026, will any US state introduce legislation regulating the genetic screening of embryos?
31% chance
By 2030, will gene editing to cure serious genetic diseases be seen as generally uncontroversial?
18% chance
Will there be an in-vivo gene therapy that edits multiple genes at once approved anywhere in the world before 2030?
52% chance
Will there be a credible (see details) announcement of human multiplex gene editing (≥5 genomic loci) pre 2026?
32% chance
When will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis?
Where will we have our first non-earth human baby?