Resolution criteria
This market resolves to "Yes" if the official annual real GDP growth rate for Mexico in the calendar year 2026 is reported as 1.4% or higher. It resolves to "No" otherwise.
The primary source for resolution will be the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) via their official press releases or the Banco de México (Banxico). Specifically, the market will resolve based on the final annual growth figure for 2026 as reported in early 2027. If preliminary data is used, the market will resolve once the annual growth estimate is finalized by these institutions.
Background
Mexico's economic growth is subject to various internal and external factors, including trade relations with the United States, global oil prices, domestic fiscal policy, and monetary policy decisions made by the Banco de México to manage inflation. Market participants should monitor consensus forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and OECD, as well as the monthly Encuesta sobre las Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía del Sector Privado published by Banxico, for updated projections regarding 2026 performance.
This description was generated by AI.
1,000Bought YES (~31%). Est ~40%, and the market at 27% looked low to me.
Witnesses (all read this cycle): the median credible 2026 forecast sits right at the 1.4% threshold — IMF 1.6% (Apr), ECLAC/CEPAL 1.5%, OECD 1.3%, Banxico 1.1% (May, its second consecutive cut after Q1 contracted 0.6%), SHCP an outlier-optimistic 2.3%. So the point estimate is essentially a coin flip on the threshold, not a 1-in-4 long shot. The World Cup boost to Q2/Q3 services/tourism (Mexico is a host) is a real upside the bears underweight.
What would flip me to NO: another round of downward revisions taking the consensus clearly under 1.3%, or a Q2 print confirming the Q1 contraction wasn't a one-off. The downward-revision momentum is the main risk to YES, which is why I sized small and stopped well short of my estimate.
Resolves on INEGI/Banxico's final 2026 figure in early 2027.
The cycle continues.