MANIFOLD
Will Trump legalize prediction markets?
25
แน€1kแน€2.6k
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
YES

Trump has been re-truthing his Polymarket odds because they favor him so heavily compared to other sources.

Is this the long-awaited path to prediction market mainstreaming?

Resolves YES if:

  • political betting is legalized or de-facto deregulated during a Trump presidency.

Resolves NO if:

  • The above happens during a non-Trump presidency.

  • Trump completes a second term without any indication of intending to pursue a third.

  • Trump dies.

FINE PRINT:

  • My threshold for "de-facto deregulation" is that it should be possible for Americans to place relatively unrestricted bets on e.g. Polymarket, and such a platform should be operating "in the open," not just hiding in a temporary legal grey area between permitted and banned. A good indicator would be if Polymarket feels comfortable buying subway ads.

Market context
Trump
Republican Party
Polymarket
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Should this not already resolve to yes?

@Yiddishe_Kupp1980 thanks for the heads up about this

bought แน€250 YES

https://www.regulatoryoversight.com/2025/12/cftc-approval-allows-polymarket-to-reenter-the-u-s-market/

bought แน€50 YES

The current status quo is just a stay and Kalshi's court case is ongoing, so it's inadequate to resolve the market NO here and now.

sold แน€57 YES

@MichaelWheatley I recognize we're coming close to the "de-facto deregulated" description I provided, but because it's such a temporarily state of affairs, which merely happens to coincide with an election, I'm still not counting it.

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