The pricing here is totally wrong. (Simple reason it's wrong: there are only 12 traders, which is already low for binary markets, but is even worse for a 7-bucket numeric market. Plus there's the issues of the resolution criteria not matching the headline question, see comments below.)

First, how much is pledged to charity?

> All of Anthropic’s co-founders have pledged to donate 80% of our wealth, and Anthropic’s staff have individually pledged to donate company shares worth billions at current prices—donations that the company has committed to matching.
(source)

> Forbes estimates that Anthropic’s seven cofounders each own just over 1.8% of the company.
(source)

So just the cofounders account for at least 10% of the company's equity pledged to charity (7 cofounders x 1.8% each x 80% pledged), at current valuation of $380B that's $38B. That's not even adding the pledges from the rest of the staff. (Obviously the valuation will change over time, and there are plenty of markets on that.)

Then there's the timing question. There's a lot of factors here but one simple thing you can look at is the markets like https://manifold.markets/Sss19971997/will-anthropic-ipo-before-2030

@jack "Donations to a foundation or DAF (Donor-Advised Fund) do not count toward the resolution total"

So it only counts if the DAFs make grants to charities and if those grants are publicized

@JonasVollmer I'm aware, that's part of the timing question (when will it go from DAF to charity). And as to publicizing... I think that's a major flaw of this market as I said in the other thread.

Basically my main point is I'm warning against anyone using this market for something decision relevant.

This is a surprisingly under-underpriced market. It's very unlikely that Anthropic won't IPO before 2028: https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/when-will-anthropic-ipo?r=RHlsYW5SaWNoYXJkc29u

And many employees are EAs who think AGI and ASI are just around the corner; they have very good reason to donate ASAP! I think this is also good reason to expect at least some of them to be public about donating. Constraints on donation recipients are real, but Coefficient Giving did manage to increase its donations by 50% in 2025 to more than 1 billion: https://coefficientgiving.org/research/2025-letter-from-the-ceo/

This is a surprisingly under-underpriced market! It's very unlikely that Anthropic won't IPO before 2028: https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/when-will-anthropic-ipo?r=RHlsYW5SaWNoYXJkc29u

And many employees are EAs who think AGI and ASI are just around the corner; they have very good reason to donate ASAP! Constraints on donation recipients are real, but Coefficient Giving did manage to increase it's donations by 50% in 2025 to more than 1 billion: https://coefficientgiving.org/research/2025-letter-from-the-ceo/

What if the donations are made privately? Those don't count I assume?

@JonasVollmer I am not sure what you mean by "private" but if I can verify that the donation occurred, then it counts. If I have no way of knowing that the money was donated, then I can't count it. That's a limitation that prevents this market from tracking reality; I haven't thought of any way around that.

@MichaelDickens I think this will quite likely be very far from tracking reality and might be misinformative. Most donations aren't announced publicly.

@MichaelDickens My median guess for the true value is $5B, my median guess for what this market is tracking is $500M

Though there's a chance that the staff DAF will do some public reporting I guess

Clarifications:

1. Donations have to be actually made, not just promised.

2. Donations to a foundation or DAF don't count.

@MichaelDickens just to clarify, money donated to a charity through a DAF or foundation counts right?

@jack yes

Does this include big announcements? How is it determined that the checks have actually cleared? I expect some big announcements of large 'funds' that then dribble money out slowly.

TBD. Foundations have to publish 990s but I'm not sure how to track non-foundation donations.